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Annual precipitation variability inferred from tree-ring width chronologies in the Changling-Shoulu region, China, during AD 1853—2007
Paper ID : 1055-ADA2013
Authors:
Yu Liu *1, Ying Lei2, Bo Sun3, Huiming Song3, Qiang Li4
110 Fenghui South Road,Xi'an High-Tech Zone, Xi'an
210 South Fenghui Road, Xi'an, China
3Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
4No.10 Fenghui South Road, High-tech Zone, Xi'an 710075, Xi'an ,China
Abstract:
On the basis of a significant correlation between the tree-ring width series from Changling-Shoulu (CLSL) in north-central China and observed instrumental data, the annual total precipitation of the previous July to the current June was reconstructed since 1853 for the studied region, with the predictor variables accounting for 41.2% of the variance in the precipitation data. The reconstruction was verified using statistical methods, observational data from nearby stations and local historical documentation. Distinct wet periods with precipitation levels greater than the mean (315 mm) occurred in 1864—1876 and 1934—1960. Notable dry periods with precipitation less than the mean occurred in 1877—1888 and 1923—1933. The precipitation fluctuated dramatically during 1940—1970, and became relatively stable around the mean value from 1960. The CLSL precipitation series showed significant correlations with precipitation reconstructions from Mt. Xinglong, Mt. Helan, Ningwu and eastern China, suggesting that these five rainfall curves represent the general precipitation variations in the western-central environmentally sensitive zone of northern China. The calculations of the CRU grid points also indicate the existence of significant spatial correlation among these sites. Together, all five of precipitation series reflect the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. The level of precipitation in the 1920s was significantly low, and droughts appeared continually for several years thereafter, which is coincident with other tree-ring studies and historical records throughout all of northern China, once again indicating the severity and the widespread occurrence of this devastating event. Periodicity analysis showed clear 23.33-, 8.24-, 2.64- and 2.59-year cycles at a 99% confidence level for the reconstructed series during the past 155 years. These cycles indicate that the variations of precipitation in central Gansu are probably caused by large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions and solar activity.
Keywords:
Changling-Shoulu, China, ring width, precipitation reconstruction
Status : Abstract Accepted